2014 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews, Picks
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
With just three weeks left in the ATP World Tour Season, the race is on for the final World Tour Final spots, while most other players on tour are seeking to boost their year-end ranking by earning some late season ranking spots. There are three 250 level indoor hard court events in Europe this week and here is a preview of each one.
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (7)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (10)
3: Kevin Anderson (16)
4: Alex Dolgopolov (24)
Stockholm attracts three top 20 players and it’s a solid field for a 250 level event.
Berdych and Dimitrov are in contention for the World Tour Finals.
First Round matchups to watch:
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Adrian Mannarino
Baghdatis had sustained periods of strong play this summer but he has not been healthy since the US Open, and he is looking to take his aggressive game indoors and enjoy success in Stockholm. He starts with the versatile Frenchman Mannarino, who has done very well at the challenger level on hard courts, but has struggled translating that success to the ATP level this year. This is a challenger-level round 1 matchup, and I think Mannarino will sneak through. The two veterans have never met before in a tournament match.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
The veteran Frenchman Chardy will take on the 18-year-old Swede Ymer, who gets a wildcard in a home event for him. Ymer is the most promising young Swede and he played reasonably well recently in a trio of USTA Pro Circuit Events. He scored two wins, and pushed the American trio of Sam Querrey, Denis Kudla, and Rhyne Williams to three sets in each tournament. Chardy should prevail, but it’s possible Ymer could earn his second career ATP main draw win this week.
Top Half:
Former Stockholm Champion Tomas Berdych opens with a qualifier or Swedish wild card Christian Lindell. Berdych went 6-2 on the Asian swing, and appears to be playing well at the moment with his only losses to Djokovic and the in-form Gilles Simon. Look for him to ease his way into the semifinals, after defeating Joao Sousa, the number 8 seed, in the quarterfinals. Sousa has lost two straight matches but he is known to play well on indoor hard, including Metz recently where he made the final, and his competition en route to the quarters, a qualifier, and Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier, is far from imposing.
Alex Dologopolov gets a bye, but he is 0-2 since returning to the ATP tour from a knee injury, and he could suffer a loss to the Baghdatis/Mannarino winner. Dolgo showed major improvement between his Tokyo and Shanghai losses though, and I think he has just enough game to reach the quarterfinals, given Baggy and Mannarino are both erratic. That said, Donald Young or Igor Sijsling have great shots at making the semifinals this week. Young opens with 5 seed Leo Mayer, who is far more comfortable on clay (though he nearly beat Roger Federer in Shanghai), and Sijsling opens with a qualifier. That said, both Young and Sijsling are also struggling: Sijsling has been far from impressive indoors on the challenger circuit in Europe, and Young lost to journeyman Malek Jaziri in Shanghai. Given Sijsling’s previous successes on indoor hard, I have him beating a qualifier, Young and then Dolgopolov (or even Baghdatis/Mannarino) to reach the semifinals in what is a toss-up section.
Bottom Half:
Defending champion Grigor Dimitrov opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili or Alejandro Falla. Neither of those players are playing good tennis at the moment and Dimitrov should set up a quarterfinal meeting with Chardy/Ymer or Jack Sock/Andrey Golubev. Sock just beat Golubev in Tokyo, and he has another great chance at a strong week, after winning consecutive matches in both Tokyo, where he beat Dolgopolov, and Shanghai, where he upset Kei Nishikori. Dimitrov, who is a year older than Sock, has never played him before, and I think Sock will put up a competitive showing, but I have Grisha into the semifinals yet again. He lost in the second round of Shanghai after making the quarters in Beijing.
Kevin Anderson is set to face Bernard Tomic in round 2. Tomic plays Swedish wild card Patrik Rosenholm in round 1. Tomic has beaten Anderson twice on hard courts, both times in 3 sets: once in 2013 in Sydney, and the other time in Shanghai in 2011. Tomic qualified in Shanghai, and Anderson went just 2-2 on the Asian swing, with losses to Chardy and Mikhail Kukushkin. Anderson has been more successful indoors than Tomic, but not by a lot, which is surprising given Anderson is a lanky big server. I have Tomic sneaking through to the quarterfinals in my bracket. At that stage he could face 7 seed Fernando Verdasco, Marinko Matosevic, Albert Ramos, or most likely, in my estimation, Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen has always been a top performer indoors and he reached the semis in Kuala Lumpur. He also has beaten Verdasco before on hard courts, twice in fact, once in 2005, and once in 2013. Verdasco won a 3 setter in Stockholm last year, and once more indoors in Rotterdam in 2008, but I’m not very convinced by his form right now. He is just 2-3 in his last five matches, though two of those losses are to Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic. He still seems a bit lost at the moment.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
I have the unseeded Igor Sijsling in the semis this week and the unseeded Tomic in the quarters, but neither of them really have the potential to make the final, in my estimation. Nieminen, on the other hand, should reach the semis, assuming he can upset Verdasco, and Verdasco may even lose to Matosevic in round 1. Nieminen-Tomic or Nieminen-Anderson would also be a tough contest, but Jarkko should get his upset shot against Dimitrov in the semis. He is 2-0 career against the Bulgarian, with both of his wins coming indoors. Dimitrov is much improved since those matches were played, but the h2h still is what it is.
Predictions
Semis:
Berdych d. Sijsling
Dimitrov d. Nieminen
Berdych should cruise to the final, barely facing any competition, given the weak top half of the draw. He crushed Sijsling in Davis Cup earlier this year, and the result should be the same no matter who he faces in the semis.
I have Dimitrov beating Nieminen since he’s a superior talent at this point, and he cares about retaining the Stockholm crown.
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
Dimitrov and Berdych have split h2h meetings this year, both times on clay, and Dimitrov was 2-0 before that, but both of those hard court meetings went to a decisive third set. After watching them both in the Asian swing, I think everyone would agree Berdych is playing superior tennis right now, and that should be enough to win him his second Stockholm title.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Berdych d. Dolgopolov
Dimitrov d. Tomic
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (5)
2: Andy Murray (11)
3: Feliciano Lopez (21)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
Murray and Ferrer are fighting to make the World Tour Finals and they highlight the field in Vienna, which is balanced otherwise.
First Round matchups to watch:
Carlos Berlocq vs. (WC)Gerald Melzer
Berlocq is the far more accomplished player, but he’s very poor on indoor hard, and the younger Melzer won a couple of matches at the Mons challenger on indoor hard. The wild card is looking for his first career ATP main draw victory yet again and he should be motivated. Berlocq is likely to advance, but he is coming off playing clay court challengers, and this one has some upset potential.
Martin Klizan vs. Benjamin Becker
Two in-form players will do battle in a match that I am really looking forward to. Klizan is 8-3 over his last 11 matches, and he made round 2 in Shanghai after reaching the semis in Beijing. He lost to David Ferrer in a competitive 3 set battle in Shanghai that he very much should have won. Becker reached the semis in Tokyo after reaching the quarters in Kuala Lumpur and he pushed Kei Nishikori to 3 sets in Tokyo, very nearly pulling off a massive upset. With both players playing some of their best tennis all year right now, and given they both have aggressive playstyles, this one should be full of highlights. It’s very hard to predict and both are solid indoors, but I have Klizan sneaking through in 3 sets because I feel his game at a peak level is better than what Becker brings to the table.
Thomaz Bellucci vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Bellucci just beat Mathieu in the Orleans Challenger semifinals a couple of weeks ago, which was surprisingly their first head to head meeting, though they have both played on tour for a while. Bellucci is on a two match losing streak, while Mathieu lost in round 2 of the Rennes challenger, and they have both been playing indoor hard courts at the challenger level in Europe, rather than going to Asia for ATP competition this Fall. Given PHM has nominally been superior on indoor hard over the course of his career, I have him through to round 2 but it could go either way.
Top Half:
David Ferrer will need to be on upset alert for his first contest against either Simone Bolelli or Tobias Kamke. Both are competent on indoor hard and Ferrer is just 2-4 in his last six matches. He did manage to win consecutive matches in Shanghai, including a 3 set win over Andy Murray, and he’s fighting to make the World Tour Finals, thus I do have him through to the quarters after a test from Bolelli. Bolelli has a 2-0 h2h against Kamke and more peak potential than the journeyman German who has been plying his trade at the indoor hard court tournaments in Europe this fall. Look for a Ferrer vs. Ivo Karlovic quarterfinal. The big serving Croat made the third round in Shanghai, upsetting Marin Cilic en route, and he broke a poor run of form he was having for quite some time. His first opponent is Federico Delbonis, and then a qualifier or Jurgen Melzer, the home favorite, is to follow. Melzer is a two-time champion in Vienna, and he’s a career 5-1 against Karlovic, but he’s been struggling all year and he’s ranked outside the top 100. Though he played alright in Tokyo, his form has to be suspect right now, and that’s why I have Karlovic beating him. Ferrer is 2-1 against Karlovic, and I feel he’s motivated enough to the reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with the Gerald Melzer/Berlocq winner. Kohli is struggling, and he suffered a shoulder injury in Metz from which he may not have fully recovered. However, barring a big upset, Kohli should reach the quarterfinals before falling to Klizan. Other potential quarterfinal opponents are Becker and local hope Dominic Thiem. Thiem opens with the pedestrian Robin Haase and then will face the Becker/Klizan winner. Of course, that should be a great match, and I feel form favors Klizan, or Becker, to reach the quarterfinals, though Thiem made round 2 in Shanghai and is far from a pushover. I have Klizan over Kohlschreiber given the form factor at the moment.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray will open with Vasek Pospisil or a qualifier and he very well could fall to the Canadian, who played reasonably well in Asia without any deep runs to show for it. Murray is 9-2 since the US Open though, and he has not lost to a non-top 20 player since the grass court season. In fact, he has just three losses to a player ranked outside the top 20 in 2014, which has not been one of his best seasons by any measure.
Look for Murray to cruise into the semis if he can get past Vashy. His quarterfinal opponent, one of JL Struff/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Sergiy Stakhovsky/qualifier is far from imposing and he should not have any trouble. Stako is playing well at the moment: he won the Orleans challenger on indoor hard and fell in the finals of the Tashkent challenger on hard courts last week. However, he is 0-3 career against Struff, with all those matches taking place this year or last, and the German should be fresher for this tournament. Struff was a semifinalist in Metz and should have a good week.
Shanghai semifinalist Feliciano Lopez will look to make a quick turnaround and continue his fine play in Vienna. The Spaniard will open with the Mathieu/Bellucci winner and unless he’s worn out he should setup a meeting with Lukas Rosol in the quarters. Rosol opens with Tashkent champion Lukas Lacko, who should be tired, and then Victor Estrella or a qualifier. Rosol has lost six straight matches, but he actually has a rather easy path to the quarters. Mathieu/Bellucci will have an outside shot at making a run this week, but signs point to Lopez making the semis in this rather weak section.
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan can play some great tennis when his game is clicking, through his path of Becker, Thiem/Haase and Kohlschreiber, before a likely meeting with Ferrer. Ferrer in the semis is far from easy, but he’s talented enough to survive the gauntlet. He nearly beat Ferrer in Shanghai, but he couldn’t put the match away, and I don’t think he will beat Ferrer this time either, but I’m sure he’s hungry for revenge.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Klizan
Murray d. Lopez
Ferrer just survived a battle with Klizan in Shanghai, and Murray has never lost to Lopez in nine career meetings, including two this season.
Final:
Murray d. Ferrer
Ferrer did just beat Murray in Shanghai, but I chalk that 3 set loss up to fatigue more than anything else, and the Scot should be motivated to take this title. It could be a close match, but I’m going with Murray as champion this week.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Ferrer d. Thiem
Pospisil d. Lacko
Final:
Ferrer d. Pospisil
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: $776,620
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (8)
2: Marin Cilic (9)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Fabio Fognini (17)
Cilic and Raonic are both in contention to make the World Tour Finals and like the other two tournaments this week, it is a balanced field in Moscow.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Andreas Seppi vs. Dusan Lajovic
The rising Serb Lajovic will have a nice upset chance against Seppi, who is a former champion in Moscow. Seppi has not had the best of seasons and he hasn’t played great on indoor hard at the ATP level the past two seasons. Seppi has a h2h win on clay and Lajovic has yet to have sustained success indoors, but I do see this match going 3 sets. I have Seppi getting through in my bracket but the upset possibility is there.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (WC)Karen Khachanov
The 18 year old Khachanov made a run to the quarterfinals last year in Moscow and now he has some major points to defend against Kukushkin. Kukushkin played well in Asia, going 4-2 overall, with wins over Kevin Anderson and Tommy Robredo in Shanghai, before narrowly losing to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets. Khachanov, who has yet to really break through and find the consistency he needs to compete with the top players, comes off qualifying for the Rennes challenger, where he lost in round 2. Kukushkin could win this comfortably but Khachanov will have home support, and it should at least be an enjoyable match.
Top Half:
Milos Raonic opens with a qualifier, then most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters. RBA has Andrey Kuznetsov, a home favorite, up first, then Sam Groth or wild card Andrey Rublev in his path. Rublev is currently the world number 1 junior player, and at 16, he’s making his ATP main draw debut at a home tournament in Moscow. Groth has a big serve but little else going for him, and Rublev will at least have a chance at getting his maiden ATP win. RBA comes off the third round in Shanghai and he has never played Raonic before. Raonic retired most likely due to fatigue, or perhaps the flu, in round 1 in Shanghai, but he should be fresh and fit here in Moscow. Given it’s an indoor hard court tournament, Raonic should cruise to the semis if healthy.
Ernests Gulbis is struggling: the Latvian appears to be carrying a shoulder injury and I’m honestly not sure why he’s playing Moscow nor why he played in Shanghai last week. He’s visibly injured and it’s affecting his game. He should fall to Jiri Vesely, who opens with dirtballer Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in round 2. Vesely has made two consecutive indoor hard court semifinals in Orleans and Mons, and he’s playing well right now. It should be a Vesely vs. Seppi/Lajovic or Ivan Dodig quarterfinal. Dirtballer Pere Riba is also in this section, the first opponent for Dodig. Dodig reversed a previously 0-4 h2h against Seppi across surfaces and beat him in Toronto in 3 sets this year, thus their match in Moscow is an unpredictable affair, should it occur. I have Dodig through to face Vesely, but I am not entirely confident.
Bottom Half:
Marin Cilic will open with Dudi Sela or Evgeny Donskoy. Sela is 2-0 against the underachieving Russian, so he should get through to round 2. Look for Cilic to face Tommy Robredo in the quarterfinals. Robredo will face Malek Jaziri or Filip Krajinovic in round 2 before Cilic. Robredo and Cilic have both lost two straight matches after previously playing well, but the h2h does favor Cilic who is 2-1 on hard courts and 2-1 against the Spaniard this season. Given the indoor hard court surface, it should be Cilic in the semis.
Fabio Fognini lost to a Chinese wild card in Shanghai and he really appears to be off the rails right now. I have him losing to Kukushkin in round 2, and his lack of focus and effort is shining through at the moment. Look for a Kukushkin vs. Mikhail Youzhny quarterfinal, assuming the former Moscow champ can get past a qualifier, and Juan Monaco/Paolo Lorenzi. Youzhny just beat Monaco en route to the Shanghai quarterfinals, perhaps his best result all season, a year in which he has fallen from the top 30 and struggled with consistency. Kukushkin and Youzhny have split indoor hard court meetings on Russian soil and they both had good runs in Shanghai. It’s a hard to predict matchup, given how poor Youzhny has been this season by and large, but he is playing at a tournament he normally does well at so look for the Colonel to advance.
Dark Horse: Jiri Vesely
Kukushkin will also have a chance to do well this week, but Vesely should make the semis with wins over DGT, an injured Gulbis, and Seppi/Dodig/Lajovic. Vesely vs. Seppi and Vesely vs. Dodig would be hard to predict, but the young Czech has a game built to do well on indoor hard and I feel he’s motivated and in the right sort of form to do well.
Predictions
Semis:
Raonic d. Vesely
Cilic d. Youzhny
Unless something is wrong with Raonic, he should make the final this week comfortably enough. He crushed Vesely on clay, his weakest surface, at the French Open this year and he’s motivated to make the World Tour Final.
Cilic has won the last 3 meetings with Youzhny, and 4 of the last 5, after the Russian started with a strong h2h advantage. This includes their last three indoor meetings, two of which went to a decisive third set, and though Cilic has lost two straight, he should recover and reach the final, given Youzhny has been poor most of the season.
Final:
Raonic d. Cilic
Raonic and Cilic have a 1-1 hard court h2h and Cilic won indoors in Valencia in 2011. Both guys have had excellent seasons, and Cilic has perhaps had the higher peak given he won the US Open, while Raonic has just been a very consistent top 10 player in a variety of tournaments and across surfaces. He plays some of his best tennis indoors and that should be enough to give him the edge.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Bautista Agut d. Dodig
Cilic d. Kukushkin
Final:
Cilic d. Bautista Agut
Tennis Atlantic 